Today might be my favorite column of the year. No, not because we’re recapping what happened on the Women Tell All. No, no, no. C’mon. Priorities people. It’s the day I release my March Madness picks, which have become somewhat legendary (in my own mind). I started it back in 2017 where I gave out one first round pick (a game played either Thursday or Friday) for people to bet on. Needless to say, it’s been profitable. In fact, I started out 5-0 as you’ll see below. The last couple years had some tough breaks as I’ve been 1-3 the last 2 years to bring my record to 6-3. Hey, any gambler will tell you if you’re hitting 66%, you will win money. I only gave out one pick a season between 2017-2019. But since then, I’ve given out 2 picks a season. And then the last 2 years, while giving out 2 picks, I would give out 4 other ones that I really like, and even those have done well. So lets see if I can keep my streak going and knock out some more winners for you. Although this season, you’re gonna have to wait til Friday since both of my games are on that day.
Don’t forget to send your “Reader Emails” in for tomorrow at steve@realitysteve.com. I think I’m gonna post the weekly podcast tomorrow morning since I leave for Vegas in the morning and I’d rather just have it out there then have to post it on Thursday. So tomorrow will be the weekly podcast AND your “Reader Emails,” along with both the Daily Roundup and the Sports Daily. Fun times for all.
So here is my record since I started giving out first round plays 7 years ago. Every game I’ve bet has been an underdog and I’m 6-3 with 4 outright winners. It makes the most sense since we know there will be upsets every season, so, I try and focus on the underdogs who I think will win the game outright. Even a couple that lost outright but covered have been close to winning:
2017: UNC-Wilmington (+8 ½) vs Virginia – Winner (lost 76-71)
2018: Loyola-Chicago (+4 1/2 ) vs Miami – Winner (won outright 64-62)
2019: UC Irvine (+4) over Kansas St. – Winner (won outright 70-64)
2020: No tournament – COVID
2021: Ohio (+7) vs Virginia – Winner (won outright 72-68)
2021: BONUS PICK: UCSB (+7) vs Creighton – Winner (lost 63-62)
2022: South Dakota St (+2) over Providence – Lost (lost 66-57)
2022: BONUS PICK: Virginia Tech (+1) over Texas – Lost (81-73)
2023: Furman (+5.5) over Virginia – Winner (won outright 68-67)
2023: BONUS PICK: Kent St (+4) over Indiana – Lost (lost 71-60)
Without any further ado, here are your two picks for this year. Both games tip off on Friday:
Coll of Charleston (+9.5) vs Alabama
BONUS PICK: JMU (+5.5) vs Wisconsin
The College of Charleston game is the third to last game to tip off on Friday, so you’ll have to wait a bit for that one, but it’s one I really like due to the fact that they are experienced, they took San Diego St. to the wire in Rd 1 last season (who ended up playing for the national championship), and Alabama is horrible, and I mean horrible, defensively. Not sure they should be almost double digit favorites versus anyone. And yes, JMU is probably one of the most public underdogs in Rd 1 but I don’t care. I think they win outright vs Wisconsin regardless. Other games that I like as well and will be betting: McNeese St. (+6) vs Gonzaga, Drake (-2) vs Wash St., Oregon (+1) vs S. Carolina, New Mexico (-2) vs Clemson.
If you look over all my picks since 2017, including the four bonus picks I gave in both 2022 and 2023, every single one of them has also covered an 8 pt. teaser. That’s 17 picks (6-3 on top plays, and 8 bonus picks) I’ve given in 7 years, and every single one of them stayed within 8 pts of the closing line. The 3 team, 8 pt teaser is something I enjoy playing, so that’s why I say while I like the plays I gave you, I always enjoy teasing the line 8 pts in my favor as well just for some added fun. You don’t have to. Or you can if you want to be livin’ large. Kidding. But when I’m 17-for-17 in those, maybe it’s a good idea to start including them in teasers. If I had to give one 3 team, 8 pt teaser this year, I’d go with Coll of Charleston (+17.5), JMU (+13.5), and Oregon (+9). Dana Altman has never lost a first round game as head coach at Oregon (7-0). So I don’t feel like betting against that. And teasing that line up to +9 seems like the thing to do, because even if he loses for the first time in Rd 1 at Oregon, I think that game will be close versus South Carolina. Good luck everyone!
So one of the things that was different about last nights episode was the format of it. They’ve done this before where there was a cliffhanger on the overnight date episode and the following episode had the resolution to that before going into the Tell All show. But we didn’t see the resolution of the letter Kelsey wrote and then the rose ceremony of Rachel’s elimination until an HOUR into the show. I probably think most viewers forgot there was even footage in Mexico we needed to see since they immediately started with the taped WTA, showing Joey and Jesse parading around LA crashing parties, introducing the women, then getting straight into the cat fighting. I’ve got some thoughts…
