Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Leading Role
ANATOMY OF A FALL, (aka ANATOMIE D’UNE CHUTE), Sandra Huller, 2023. © Neon / Courtesy Everett Collection
Courtesy Everett Collection
Weekly Commentary (Feb. 1, 2024): Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone are neck-and-neck for the best actress prize for their searing works in “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Poor Things,” which both garnered double-digit nominations.
Both women have won the Golden Globe, but Stone edged out Gladstone at the Critics Choice Awards. Looking ahead, SAG will ultimately be the most vital precursor to who wins the Oscar, but there’s an underlying current among pundits regarding Sandra Hüller from “Anatomy of a Fall” and Annette Bening from “Nyad.”
Hüller’s French courtroom drama had a strong day at the Academy, landing five noms, including best picture, director, original screenplay, and editing. The Oscar punditry world would call that “a perfect day” regarding the key nods needed to win the best picture. At BAFTA, where Gladstone is not nominated, there’s a viable pathway for Hüller to edge out Stone, potentially putting this category into anarchy (mainly depending on who wins SAG). However, Hüller was omitted from the SAG lineup, which, in the modern era, only three people have won an Oscar without at least a mention from the group — Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock”), Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”) and Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) — all of which were in supporting categories.
And then there’s Bening, 65, who is on her fifth career nomination and has yet to win a statuette. Unfortunately for her, she missed out on a BAFTA bid, which makes SAG her final stand to assert herself as a potential spoiler. In the era where all four televised awards ceremonies have existed — BAFTA, Globes, SAG and Critics Choice — no lead actress has won the Oscar without at least one winning stop at the four groups (even Frances McDormand won BAFTA for “Nomadland” before surprising on Oscar night in 2020).
Interestingly, Carey Mulligan is nominated at both BAFTA and SAG for “Maestro” and is the only best actress nominee, aside from Stone, to be recognized by all four groups. And yet, people need to discuss her as a potential winner. Could that be an error on our part?
There will be more clarity over the next few weeks.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
And the Nominees Are:
Other Eligiblities From 2023 (Alphabetized by Studio)**
- Tia Nomore — “Earth Mama” (A24)
- Greta Lee — “Past Lives” (A24)
- Cailee Spaeny — “Priscilla” (A24)
- Michelle Williams — “Showing Up” (A24)
- Julianne Moore — “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus — “You Hurt My Feelings” (A24)
- Sandra Hüller — “The Zone of Interest” (A24) **
- Rosa Salazar — “A Million Miles Away” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Kylie Rogers — “Landscape with Invisible Hand” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Elizabeth Banks — “The Beanie Bubble” (Apple Original Films)
- Jessie Buckley — “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
- Eve Hewson — “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)
- Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Babetida Sadjo — “Our Father, The Devil” (Cinedigm)
- Helen Mirren — “Golda” (Bleecker Street)
- Nia Vardalos — “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” (Focus Features)
- Teyana Taylor — “A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)
- Trace Lysette — “Monica” (IFC Films)
- Anya Taylor-Joy — “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)
- Jessica Chastain — “Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)
- Abby Ryder Fortson — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Rachel Zegler — “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)
- Ashley Park — “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)
- Evangeline Lilly — “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios)
- Brie Larson — “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)
- Ayo Edebiri — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)
- Rachel Sennott — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)
- Alma Pöysti – “Fallen Leaves” (Mubi)
- Lily Gladstone — “The Unknown Country” (Music Box Films)
- Sandra Hüller — “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
- Thomasin MacKenzie — “Eileen” (Neon)
- Jessica Chastain — “Mother’s Instinct” (Neon)
- Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Origin” (Neon)
- Phoebe Dynevor — “Fair Play” (Netflix)
- Myha’la Herrold — “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
- Julia Roberts — “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
- Julianne Moore — “May December” (Netflix) **
- Natalie Portman — “May December” (Netflix)
- Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Annette Bening — “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Emily Blunt — “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)
- Michelle Rodriguez — “Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves” (Paramount Pictures)
- Laurie Metcalf — “Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions)
- Samara Weaving — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Molly Gordon — “Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Jennifer Lawrence — “No Hard Feelings” (Sony Pictures)
- Hailee Steinfeld — “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
- Melissa Barrera — “Carmen” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Jane Levy — “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Layla Mohammadi — “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Zar Amir Ebrahimi — “Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Leonie Benesch — “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Hilary Swank — “The Good Mother” (Vertical Entertainment)
- Allison Williams — “M3gan” (Universal Pictures)
- Margot Robbie — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Fantasia Barrino — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Phoebe Waller-Bridge — “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Warner Bros.)
- Halle Bailey — “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- Ariana DeBose — “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 category winner: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
